Monday, February 21, 2005

Stratego

I'm not the only pessimist about the American future. This guy has the end game all figured out. He predicts other past-and-future empires, including Russia, China and Japan, are holding strings that when pulled will bring utter collapse to the "Anglo-American empire."

Nice ghost story, but in each case, there's a huge weakness. Russia: too stupid to try to rule the world, too corrupt to try; Putin et al. will be satisfied to bleed their own country dry, then fly off to Rio when it collapses. China: more likely to collapse from an epidemic than take control of the world economy; too large to govern itself, much less half the world. Japan: the best trick they've got is invading China again; China has all the raw materials they need, and they'll be satisfied with that. They're too smart to extend too far from the home islands. No, the country I'd worry about is India. They have an educated populace and way too much to lose. If they team up with an unlikely partner, like Russia, China would shit its pants.

The countries that stand to win in maxi-global games of chicken like this are the non-aligned, very isolated ones. I would say South Africa, but they have that AIDS problem; they're fucked for the next century. Perhaps Brazil, if they can team up on some important stuff with Argentina. Countries with lots of land and lots of natural resources will always win out in the end.

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